Alright, time to pay homage to my ancestors and check in on the hockey club north of the border. How are the Montreal Canadiens looking through 24 games?

After a brutal eight-game stretch where the Habs went 1-7, the Canadiens strung together a three-game win streak before dropping a 7-2 game against the Colorado Avalanche (who taunted Quebecois everywhere with their Nordiques jerseys). Injuries have forced Montreal to try new line combinations, call up players from Laval, and experience some brutal goaltending.

As of Tuesday morning, the Canadiens rank 19th in both expected goals share (48.98% at 5v5) and actual goals share (48.72%). They rank 14th in expected goals against rate (2.63/60) but 26th in actual goals against rate (2.86/60), both at 5v5. The glaring issue is in net (although that’s not the full picture). Backup goaltender Jakub Dobes has a 0.2 goals saved above expected, while Samuel Montembault, their number one in net, has a -3.4. I call Montembault the Habs' number one only because head coach Martin St. Louis still believes in him as their number one goalie.

While there’s been some woeful moments in net, the Canadiens have played some bad defense, too. This example may not be fair, considering their opponents were the Colorado Avalanche, but I don’t think that excuses a team with playoff aspirations from chasing the play like they did. Below is a screenshot of Brock Nelson just chilling in the back door.

Injuries are affecting their depth as well: Kirby Dach, Kaiden Guhle, Patrik Laine, and Alex Newhook are all out. Defenseman Jayden Struble is currently listed as day-to-day. Alex Newhook’s injury on Nov. 17 was the most impactful and has forced Martin St. Louis to break up his offensive line of Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky. Newhook’s impact was +1.55 goals per 60 (relative to teammates and highest on the team). With Newhook out, St. Louis brought up Zachary Bolduc to play with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki on the top line and brought down Juraj Slafkovsky to the second line. Since Newhook’s absence, Bolduc has six points in five games, while Slafkovsky has been incredible with Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen.

This issue has actually provided some insight into the Canadiens. Before Newhook’s injury, there were some concerns regarding scoring depth beyond the top line. Newhook was excellent on the second line, as was rookie Ivan Demidov. There were (still kind of are) questions surrounding the 2C. With Slafkovsky on the second line, he’s providing stability for rookies Demidov and Kapanan. According to Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model, Slafkovsky ranks in the 91st percentile for defense among all forwards.

Despite their goaltending issues, I think their defensive structure is only a concern at the moment. This is something that will improve with experience and time, but something to keep an eye on as the season continues. Their offense at 5v5 has been exceptional. They rank 24th in expected goals for rate (2.53/60) but 10th in actual goals for rate (2.72).

The Habs, through 24 games played, have had some highs and some lows. During their lows, it seemed like there was something every game bothering them: goaltending, 5v5 defense, and even the power play (despite them ranking 9th). The good news was that it was rarely a combination of issues, just one problem area during a bad game. The Canadiens still need to figure out the second period, but Evolving Hockey has them projected to finish third in the Atlantic Division with a 61.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Extra Notes

  • Defenseman Mike Matheson extended for five years with a $6 million AAV.
  • Habs fans have A LOT ot be excited about on the blue line. Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson, and the aforementioned Matheson have been positive.
  • Florian Xhejai (brother to Arber) and Jared Davidson are two callups from the AHL who have been notable.